Domestic aluminum ingot inventory continued to decline, SHFE aluminum bottomed out and climbed [SMM Aluminum Futures Brief].

View SMM Aluminum Product Quotes, Data, and Market Analysis

SMM, April 21:

Today, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2506 contract opened at 19,680 yuan/mt, with a high of 19,900 yuan/mt, a low of 19,625 yuan/mt, and closed at 19,870 yuan/mt, up 0.86%. The trading volume was 172,000 lots, and the open interest was 213,000 lots.

SMM Comment: Macro-wise, the domestic macro-positive sentiment remains unchanged, but the impact of the US tariff war persists, leading to a strong wait-and-see sentiment among investors. On the fundamental side, the destocking of domestic aluminum ingot inventory supports spot premiums, providing a strong bottoming effect for aluminum futures. In terms of aluminum consumption, the overall operating rate of the aluminum processing sector experienced a slight correction. Except for aluminum wire and cable, the operating rates of other sectors weakened slightly, and subsequent orders are expected to decline. The momentum for a significant rise in aluminum prices is insufficient, and domestic aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term.

Today, the most-traded alumina 2509 contract opened at 2,811 yuan/mt, with a high of 2,859 yuan/mt, a low of 2,787 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,844 yuan/mt, down 0.44%. The trading volume was 385,000 lots, and the open interest was 210,000 lots.

SMM Comment: Due to the concentrated maintenance of alumina refineries in April, the operating capacity of alumina has continued to decline. As of last week, the operating capacity of alumina dropped to 82.88 million mt/year. The supply of alumina has tightened in the short term, slowing the decline in alumina prices, and prices in the northern region have rebounded slightly. However, as maintenance gradually ends and new capacities come online, the operating capacity of alumina is expected to rebound. In the medium and long term, alumina prices remain under pressure. In the short term, alumina prices may enter a phase of fluctuation and adjustment.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]